Saturday, March 30, 2013

Confusing correlation and causation in success stories

I recently read a interested take on the field of management/success/leadership: Management/Success/Leadership: Mostly Bullshit
We humans like to feel as if we understand and control our environments. We don't like to think of ourselves as helpless leaves blowing in the wind of chance. So we clutch at any ridiculous explanation of how things work.
I wonder if we could change our culture to demand better evidence for the explanations we trust, accept the lack of knowledge when the evidence is bad or missing and allow for chance to play a bigger role in our lives instead of false certainty. Could we get people to value honesty and doubt more than assertiveness and conviction, as to elect a politician that says: "I don't know, I'll look for more evidence before having an opinion on that.", "The evidence is unclear, I'll try what seems best and see if it works.", "I was wrong, I'll try something else now.".

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